Recent Hype on Climate Change... What is Going On?

If you are reading this, you are probably hoping for an explanation for all of the climate change headlines this week. The topic has pushed to the forefront of the global news cycle after a report was published on October 1st, 2018 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Let’s break this information down and remove some of the press dramatization to get a better feel for what is really happening.

Scientists love acronyms, and the public hates getting lost in them so I made a quick cheat sheet.

Reference guide for this post:

IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, established 1988
UNFCCC- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in 1992
Paris Agreement- a globally recognized commitment instigated in 2015 by the UNFCCC to begin mitigating emissions, adapting better practices and offering financial support by the year 2020
SR15- Special Report 1.5° Celsius
SDG- Sustainability Development Goals
1.5° Celsius is equivalent to 2.7° Fahrenheit

So what is climate change, anyways?

First, we need to understand the difference between climate and weather. With weather, we can see and feel changes from day to day. Depending on where you are, the weather may be hot or cold, warm or dry, and it can change at the drop of a hat.

Climate describes what the usual or average weather is like in a given place. Climate is different depending on the season, how far north or south you are from the equator, or your proximity to a large body of water. Climate does experience change, however it does not change as often or as much as the weather does. Shifts in your climate may be totally unrecognizable until long term trends are established. Today, people move around so much that it can be hard to keep a finger on what the ‘normal’ climate is.

Scientists have been hard at work trending and tracking data from all of the world using satellites, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and other technologies. The North American Space Academy (NASA) has developed a great visual tool called the Climate Time Machine (link here to their website so that you can explore!). For each of the variables (sea ice, sea level, carbon dioxide, and global temperature) you can slide the bar to visualize changes that have been measured.

The general and simple consensus among scientists is that the Earth’s climate has experienced an increase of approximately 1° Fahrenheit in the last 100 years.

Seems like a lot of time and money spent worrying about such a small change, right?

*Que heated debate*

You can get absolutely LOST in the scientific methods, many of which are way over our heads, and it is hard to know who to trust and what to believe. Especially on an issue as politically driven and emotionally fueled as climate change.

Here is a break down of the current news hype:

On October 1st, a Special Report (SR15) was published by the IPCC after a session held in Incheon, Republic of Korea. This report discusses the impacts of global warming (interchangeable with climate change) of 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels. Pre-industrial levels were determined by the IPCC from a reference period of data collected between 1850 and 1900.

Human-induced global warming (also referred to anthropogenic) has been reported to have caused approximately 0.9° C of warming as of the 2006-2015 data collection. If this current rate continues, the Earth will have experienced that 1.5° C warming threshold by the year 2040.

In response, the Paris Climate Agreement was developed and went into effect in November of 2016.

“The Paris Agreement central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Additionally, the agreement aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change.”

There has been a debate over which countries are involved with the Paris Agreement. The United States never signed the agreement, it was ‘adopted’ through an executive order by President Barack Obama in 2016. There is a difference between signing the Paris Agreement and ratifying it. To this date, 181 of global participants (countries, republics, states, etc.) have actually ratified the agreement compared to the 197 participants that have signed it. The United States, Russia, and others found at this link have not formally adopted the agreement as policy.

We are currently in the fourth year since this agreement was established. There has been a significant push for improvement before the end of 2020 when the participants will reconvene and reassess global progress. The SP15 includes the most up-to-date scientific findings to motivate active participants towards the goals they declared.

Media has refocused on this issue after the Special Report was released with updated data and renewed expert interest.

But…what is the difference between 1.5° and the previous 2° C of the Paris Agreement? The significance and damage becomes more widespread, more severe, and more difficult to reverse with each tenth of a degree. This article by Nature describes this difference as:

Two degrees of warming could destroy ecosystems on around 13% of the world’s land area, increasing the risk of extinction for many insects, plants and animals. Holding warming to 1.5 °C would reduce that risk by half.

Bottom line is; the lower the rise in global temperature, the lower the risks will be to our society and ecosystems.

You may have already made this assumption, but there is a lot more going on here than just global warming. To pull all of this together, we should consider the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). No matter who you are or where you live, your life is impacted daily by underdevelopment in any of these areas. Climate Action is goal number 13 out of 17 goals listed below that the UN is focused on.

I love the Sustainable Development Goals because they are straightforward, they resonate with everyone, and most importantly they are attainable. If you are interested and want to know more, explore each goal individually.

“Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C would require rapid, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society” -IPCC

Believing in climate change alone is not the concern. Climate change is at the forefront of the news because it is a tangible topic in areas where press and media coverage are common.

I commend the IPCC for acknowledging the gaps we have in multiple areas of our society as contributing factors. It will take strong leaders, well-nourished and educated populations, cultural inclusiveness, updated infrastructure, and informed consumers to work on combating climate change. The plethora of struggles that will be faced by upcoming generations cannot be solved with one-size-fits-all solutions.